For posterity's sake, here's last year's predictions.
Here's all the movies I saw last year.
And here's this year's nominations.
Best Picture
Who should get it: Good Night, and Good Luck.
Who will get it: Brokeback Mountain.
Who should have been nominated: King Kong.
Performance by Best Actor
Who should get it: David Strathairn or Joaquin Phoenix, honestly.
Who will get it: Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote. Possibly Heath Ledger, though it pains me to admit it.
Who should have been nominated: Ralph Fiennes, Constant Gardener.
Best Actress
Who should get it: Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line.
Who will get it: Felicity Huffman for Transamerica.
Who should have been nominated: Naomi Watts for King Kong.
Supporting Actor
Who should get it: Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain.
Who will get it: Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain.
Who should have been nominated:
Supporting Actress
Who should get it: I like Catherine Keener, but couldn't she have been nominated for 40 Year-Old Virgin instead?
Who will get it: Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain.
Who should have been nominated: Anne Hathaway for Brokeback Mountain.
Directing
Who should get it: Good Night, and Good Luck.
Who will get it: Brokeback Mountain.
Who should have been nominated: Sin City, maybe King Kong.
Original Screenplay
Who should get it: Match Point or Syriana.
Who will get it: Crash.
Who should have been nominated: Mirrormask. Which was totally robbed this year. It was that good. This will be a recurring theme.
Adapted Screenplay
Who should get it: Brokeback Mountain (short story) or History of Violence (comic book)
Who will get it: Capote.
Who should have been nominated: I don't know if King Kong would count. Maybe Goblet of Fire?
Cinematography
Who should get it: Brokeback Mountain or Good Night, and Good Luck.
Who will get it: Brokeback Mountain.
Who should have been nominated: Sin City, Constant Gardener.
Art Direction
Who should get it: Good Night, and Good Luck.
Who will get it: King Kong.
Who should have been nominated: Sin City and Mirrormask were both brilliantly visual movies, and honestly both deserve to beat everything that was nominated.
Costume Design
Who should get it: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.
Who will get it: No clue. I'll go with the above, just for innovation, unless they remember that they hate Tim Burton.
Who should have been nominated: Mirrormask, you rat bastards, Mirrormask. Also, Roll Bounce for 100% awesomeness.
Sound
Who should get it: War of the Worlds, but King Kong is a close second.
Who will get it: I suspect Walk the Line will get this as a pity award.
Who should have been nominated: Good Night, and Good Luck.
Makeup
Who should get it: Narnia. I'd say Revenge of the Sith, but who can tell what was makeup and what was computers?
Who will get it: Narnia.
Who should have been nominated: *Again* with the Mirrormask.
Documentary
Who should get it: Murderball. Not that I've seen it.
Who will get it: March of the Penguins. Not that I've seen it.
Foreign Language
Who should get it: Joyeux Noel. Though, I note, most of these look pretty interesting (Hellooo, Netflix.)
Who will get it: Sophie Scholl, because, you know, Nazis.
Animated
Who should get it: Howl's Moving Castle, unless Wallace & Gromit was better.
Who will get it: Wallace & Gromit
Who should have been nominated: Madagascar. It wasn't Citizen Kane, but it was entertaining.
I didn't pick Best Song, because, who cares. However, the travesty was that Madagascar was not nominated for Ali G singing "Move It Move It."
Alright, there it is. Where was I right? Where was I wrong?
