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19 December 2011 @ 09:32 pm
A great example of why Jonathan Bernstein's blog is always worth reading:

"3. Remember that what matters out of Iowa is the spin.

"4. Remember that the spin will be influenced by two main things: press biases, and party actors.

"5. I count three big releveant press biases. One is that 'news' trumps 'not news', which means that surprises get more coverage than whatever is expected to happen - which is where the expectations game really does matter. The second is that the press has limited capacity, and can only really handle one big and one minor story line. The third is that there's a press bias in favor of portraying the nomination contest as close and uncertain.

"6. The story on party influence on spin is of course that it matters a lot how united the party is. If party actors are close to united against a candidate (Newt!) or if large factions are strongly against a candidate (Ron Paul!), then they will attempt to spin against that candidate."

Read the rest here.