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31 August 2007 @ 09:33 am
discuss!  
Totally stolen from inspired by stolen from Joel Achenbach:

Which country (or countries, or regional alliances, etc.) will be most dominant in 50 years?

(Other than the U.S.)

 
 
PMMJ: Newscheetahmaster on August 31st, 2007 01:58 pm (UTC)
China is a strong possibility. They've been on the verge of something big happening for a while. And their investments in Africa definitely indicate some creative thinking going on up top.
Tornado Ninja Fan #1: Re-Elect Lex in 2008ulf_boehnke on August 31st, 2007 04:44 pm (UTC)
It depends if the communist party will be able to keep control of the populace. Right now parts of China still qualify as a third world country and parts of the rural population are migrating to the cities, while the richer parts of the population might want to participate in the politics like every other middle class before them.

The communist party would have to control all these changes or change with them. Otherwise, the investments in Africa could end looking like the french colonialism before their revolution.
Tarsustarsus4 on August 31st, 2007 11:15 pm (UTC)
I would also posit that capital is going to be very slow moving into a country whose self-proclaimed philosophy is social ownership of property.
Tarsustarsus4 on August 31st, 2007 11:47 pm (UTC)
I should also add that I don't entirely disagree with China, just that their growth is going to have be mostly generated internally (entirely feasible with their size). I call them a wild card right now, time will tell.
PMMJ: Newscheetahmaster on September 1st, 2007 08:06 pm (UTC)
Honestly, I don't think anyone follows that philosophy anymore. And I think the biggest upheaval will be when someone stands up, admits that, and takes on the party.
Lizammitnox on August 31st, 2007 02:04 pm (UTC)
Yep, China. I'd say India as a close second.
PMMJ: Smartest man on the planetcheetahmaster on September 1st, 2007 11:32 pm (UTC)
I firmly believe India is up there. However, I don't know what it is that will push them to the next stage. Massive social upheaval? The collapse of Pakistan? (I believe Pakistan will implode rather than explode. Who knows.)
If you can't win the game, change the rulesbadmagic on August 31st, 2007 02:49 pm (UTC)
China - on its way up.

USA - we're going down for a while, then back up again. The only problem the US really has is bad leadership, but it's really, really bad, and it's going to take us a while to recover from it.

Russia - on its way up, but slowly.

India - not as far up as you might think. More money is pouring in, but they've got a hostile, nuclear-capable neighbor, and a lot of ethnic strife. They've got to do a lot of infrastructure work to do if they're going to be a player.

Turkey - becoming less secular. Going to be showing up a lot in the headlines, and not in a good way.

Iran - the war in Iraq was like a great big birthday present to them. An enemy on their borders is gone, and they have a lot of influence in the region. Going to be a lot more influential in the Middle East. A republican US president will visit Iran in the next fifty years, and it will be the next "Nixon goes to China."
PMMJ: Newscheetahmaster on September 1st, 2007 11:33 pm (UTC)
One of the real strengths of the US is that even when we have bad leadership, the whole situation can completely turn around in 4-8 years, and things just keep rolling all along.

Good points on Iran.
The Antichrist: Vtheantichrist on August 31st, 2007 03:15 pm (UTC)
Monaco baby!
Barovanbarovan on August 31st, 2007 03:47 pm (UTC)
I would have to say India pending problems with Pakistan.

China has as much if not more problems internally and I would not be suprised to see some really serious problems arise there.

Iran will definetly be important regionally, really depends on how poorly the US handles the end game in Iraq. Iran's economy is dependant on gasoline imports and their refining infrastructure is falling apart. Butr if they successfully turn Iraq into a puppet they will be a big power. And that could be actually bad for them.

So I would say China and India have the biggest chance of ascending tp "super" power status. Could make things really interesting for the next half century. Don't forget about Japan, with China gorwing in power the Japanese are looking more and more at power projection.
PMMJ: Smartest man on the planetcheetahmaster on September 1st, 2007 11:34 pm (UTC)
As noted above, I think Pakistan will take care of itself, and that might be what propels India to the next stage.

Good point on Japan, well put.
Strange Detractor: cloud 1professorbooty on August 31st, 2007 04:02 pm (UTC)
...
I think we may see something out of South America, probably including but not limited to Venezuela, but the exact form it will take is pure speculation.
Strange Detractor: moonprofessorbooty on August 31st, 2007 04:03 pm (UTC)
Re: ...
Of course, one's definition and connotation of "dominant" is highly relevant to this whole discussion.
Tarsustarsus4 on August 31st, 2007 11:20 pm (UTC)
Re: ...
No chance on Venezuela. Having spoken to someone born and raised there, it's basically Cuba with oil money. Chavez has gotten where he is by unilaterally seizing from businesses and giving to the poor. Laudable, but the only industry keeping outside investment there now is oil, and even they're getting scared.

If you want to go with S. America, I like Brazil much more, with maybe Peru in a close second.
Strange Detractor: pipeprofessorbooty on September 1st, 2007 02:24 am (UTC)
Re: ...
I'm leaning more towards a coalition of countries -- it's the exact governmental system and membership that I'm really not speculating on.

And Cuba as we know it wouldn't exist without 40 years of crippling U.S. embargo.
Tarsus: metarsus4 on August 31st, 2007 11:23 pm (UTC)
My own vote (US aside) is Canada, Japan, and S. Korea. Very business friendly, built-up infrastructure, and educated populace.

France/Italy and the rest of the EU are up there, but they need to come back on tax rates a bit first.
PMMJ: Ostrichcheetahmaster on September 1st, 2007 08:07 pm (UTC)
Canada? Really? How are they going to find a role as a mover-and-shaker on the world stage?
PMMJ: Gamingcheetahmaster on September 1st, 2007 11:30 pm (UTC)
Man, all these replies and not one Shadowrun joke? I'm surprised, people.